Q & A with the Experts
David Gannet, Editor CD-ROM Professional
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Panel - terrific
Andy Young, Young Minds, President
Parker, Standard Deviations - co-author of CD-Recordable handbook
Jerry McFaul
David Wilcox, VP of Dataware - if you don't know about them then you don't know about the CDROM market
Sierra, SCSI Jim
Ground rules - interactive - ask a question / get an answer - take a poll
informal style session
self introductions - their companies, what they like
refrain from full product line descriptions
Mix it up on issues on which we are mixed up
Key ingredient is you.
Housekeeping -ask from microphone - put it on tape
Also - early this morning, esp given hootenanny tonight
Issues for discussion
When panelists introduce themselves, they can throw out topics.
You asking questions that you need answers to.
Questions about Standards issues High Density CD ROM
When? Titles, drives, equipment and software.
What will the format(s) of high density look like.
What will applications look like.
What changes to standards can be expected to change?
CD Erasable?
How fast coming into market.
CD Recordable
How big will it be by the end of 96 - potential size of the market
what app areas, technologies
what can it replace - WORM, document imaging
How transparent CDR will be?
Stand alone or integrated.
How well will CDR work in networks and enterprise-wide.
Is CDR transparent? How easy for user, for administrator. Networks for publishing or data storage.
CDR on networks today.
Authoring and retrieval software.
What is right and what is wrong. How good is this class today?
New features. What would they like to see.
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How many regularly read CD-ROM Professional?
(about 1/3)
(under 1/2 have subscriptions)
How do you think we are doing?
write us letter
Feedback is very important.
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Andrew Young
President and founder of Young Minds
small segment, concentrate on UNIX products
despite Windows product - award winning
my expertise is in standards -
CD-ROM, CDR and jukebox
Rockridge
primary author
project editor of ISO 9660
interested in networks - extremely important
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Dana Parker
Contributing Editor to CD-R Professional
officially neutral
writes standards column
June issue
High density CD Standards
CD Plus
interested in hearing about networks
Bob Sterit - CD-ROM Fundamentals - used by SIGCAT as an instructional text
New Writers Guide to CD-ROM.
Forthcoming CD Recordable book - please advise
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Jerry McFaul
pulled you folks together here
SIGCAT
information out there that should still be gotten into the hands of the people
pull together resources
put on paper
put on the Internet WWW
John Graves
SIGCAT
8000 members
non-profit organization
make information available to the world
provide a forum for public and private sectors to meet
see what's coming
large part of the purpose of this meeting
High Density revolution - order of magnitude change - interesting issues associated with it
CDR is absolutely exploding - brand new markets, new opportunities. Many things we couldn't do when CD was only a pressed medium.
Many IS managers - people implementing the paradigm shifts - put those people where they can see it being done. Talk, call them up. This is what SIGCAT has been doing since it started. Spawned agencies getting into CD ROM earlier than they would have otherwise.
Important to entire info processing arena.
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David Wilcox
neutral on books and magazines
never on a standards committee
runs NA Bus Unit for Data/Ware
in CD ROM market - authoring and retrieval since 1986
our software is used on 831 commercial CD ROM titles
about 4x the next player in the market
a profile in CD ROM professional
in text management
acquired BRS search
national tech transfer center
involved in online - moving all CD ROM and text management online - ranging from Dun and Bradstreet's 42GB, 32 million records - available to government agencies.
CDR - many CDR software products
a number of OEMs bundling
So there are the four areas of the business - some CD ROM related, some not
All the different ways to use technology - obviously we can show advantages
$32.4M year - 300 employees
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Jim Torson
Intaglio
hardware business
CDR product line as ubiquitous as Xerox
need software support
magazines
personal background in storage
20 years in magnetic media
saw CD as an interesting vehicle for data processing industry
10 years ago, developed for audio world
Can you still buy LP?
Turntable has been eliminated.
CBeck - bring consumer tech into data processing tech
Reason why we have CD ROM so cheap is because it is consumer product. If not that cheap, we shouldn’t be here
ZBeck - I was chairman - neat device with potential - many standards
DEC had Unifile format
Apple was going a certain way
Back in those days
ZBeck tried to stop proliferation - Tahoe - High Sierra hotel
Make a standard that would be interchangeable
Everybody liked to do their own thing.
I think we achieved that goal.
From read only to writeable - keep in mind that CD is a consumer product.
as long as we keep remembering that products will continue to be low cost
My interest in this session and this show is to get involved in application - CD recordable - will replace Xerox
for high value - pressed world - under 200 copies - CDR is fantastic.
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Point of success of CD being founded on CD Audio success
High Density
Time/Warner /Toshiba - Phillips
SV - mm CD
SV has gone out to the Hollywood crowd
mm CD has talked to computer market - computer/data markets will be first market.
Is consumer basis so specific that SV will be better?
Who has the best argument - in terms of what will be likely to happen
Jim: Not a technology question - pressed discs - question is which one gets to largest market quickest. All home PCs have CD - its the entertainment side.
mm can have entertainment side. I'm not sure that it is going to be consumer product driven.
I don't know numbers in those. Whichever has the larger share of the consumer
Strength - Phillips and SONY - get royalty on every product that goes out the door. IF it is Compact disc - very strong. I really can't comment on which will win.
- Driven by consumer. I don't know what will win
‘86
First year ‘85
EDS just put out a study - 12 myths of the mass mm market. One thing pointed out - consumer penetration will be 40% by 2000 - huge number. Audio CD is just over 50% and it has obsoleted LPs.
It will have taken the traditional tech 15 year - took longer than normal
roughly speaking - mass market with HD - reasonable price point for consumer - tradition in 40% of homes, mass market
interactive mm networks, still deploying - 2006, to 2008 or LATER
issue becomes will there be enough of markets given 40%
broadband networks coming 3-4-5 yrs later.
no equivalent of CD audio
start down the cost curve before launching into the consumer market
Basic question - if I don't care about it being on one disc - have to get a movie on a disc. If I don't care - nothing I couldn't do with 6 CDR with pioneer 6-pack - so long as I don't mind waiting 7 seconds. No reason to wait for HD. If that is the case - how many need 6 disc apps? Not that many - we believe in moving mainframe data down to 286 PCS - kind of a no man's land.
That's the context.
- Jerry
highly biased
I come from world of terrabyte data
vast storage
100000s of tapes
precarious nature of these vast databases
moving to CDR just to save the data
The Archival Solution
Terrabytes - would be even better stored on HDCD
Issue comes down to push or pull
I feel T/W/Toshiba is a push and they are attempting to do that with a lot of splash - build support, roll out
I don't think that's going to happen
How many rent video tapes - 90%
How many wish that VHS had better quality 2 people.
No overwhelming, burning desire for higher quality
Masked by today's TV - no HDTV in home - significant investment.
More justification to take advance
Todays TVs will mask anything you see off a CD ROM
Random access - multiple ending - I'm happy if Hollywood gives me ONE good ending
I don't rewatch - linear content.
Kids wear out tape watching Lion King.
Real base consumer market - they have got to have 10s of billions to sustain tech roll out - not in time frame - has got to return soon
Liner onto CD ROM - not taking advantage - as you do in interactive training, things, Stop/Pause go back.
mismatch
Misjudging video tape market. Very telling answer down to video retail - don't want two formats - one copy , one format. Are they going to be interested in moving to another format?
We did this before. NO.
Thing that almost killed video disc - inability to record. Time shift - 80% of people can’t get blinking time off CD - I use it to record when I’m not there
AS recordable CDS come out, that will be consumer
$400 -500 option - no record. That's nice, but.
Other side - huge data bases - presented HD scenario
Census
NASA
NOAA
US GS
terrabytes
Those folks would buy HDCD TODAY.
priceless datasets - rotting now
23 pallets of tapes to 1700 CER
1600 tapes to CDS
HD would be big advantage.
Any org with vast tape libraries - potential data storage problem.
Terrabyte on one disc.
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Dana
great minds think alike
T/Time Warner - push - press will save money rather than tapes
no record until 1998
even if you could in your home. MPEG 2 encoder chip sets will not come down enough
300000 for chips
Won’t be cheap enough, soon enough
Very narrrow window of opportunity - by the time you get HDCD - it will be online
Recordability is big factor
People demanding - happy with VCRs
Andy
ditto
People who are actually demanding HD for digital video - media exec believe VHS and MPEG not good enough. Don't like to put precious movies on these.
Videophile market here, where nothing is good enough now. Not addressing mating of HDCD and HDTV. High quality video on low end TV.
When we talk about bringing new tech to market - mass market will make it affordable - volume that will make it affordable.
In original market - audiophile market - CD audio - remarkably higher quality into home. Not seeing that with Video CD proposals. Not dramatically higher quality. Not the high value market.
To me, the only high value markets - computer data, interactive - not deliverable by tape.
Issue of what's driving early adoptors - justify. High density demands in computer market - lots of opportunities for multidisc databases.
We need HDCD for multiple disc database because too inconvenient. Only a few seconds, but in computer time.
A few seconds in consumer time, not too bad. People will wait through gap in the middle of a video disc movie. $40 on disc.
Those things can be offered by video CDs - that justifies substantially higher price
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Devils advocate - relative to 7 second delay - relative to having on fiche - much better. Actual time to load microfilm. Absolutely enormous improvement with today's technology.
Despite potential for enormous improvement
In most corporations. Same problems about sensitivity. Other agencies are not doing it. Banks are not. Insurance is not. It will be 2-3 years. They are in middle or late majority. We are in early majority.
Tech will not be cheap/usable enough for 2-3 years.
When you are talking about banks - still disc sets.
I did not mean to imply that multidisc sets were not better than a tape library.
Barrier to not do it - may be psychological.
Another question - cost being a retarding factor.
Phillips suggesting that the drives will not be late in coming - claiming 1996.
Nor will they be more expensive. We have been trying to find out.
What will cost be for drive.
Another issue - EDS study. Penetration of 40% installed base of CDROM drives. If in fact 96 97 and not more expensive, say 4-500 dollars - potential, large.
current titles run on HD. drives?
Hardware is not really cost - it is subsidized.
Japanese have no problem subsidizing products - IF they can see light at the end of a tunnel.
Cost is not intrinsic, it is volume.
The SV will introduce two types - one HD only, one backwards compatible - will cost more.
Another aspect - HD equation -the discs, when they are pressed -two layers - one Low density and one HD - current players will be able to play HD on low density layer. As people need to get to HD, they will migrate into high density players.
100000 images at USGS 24-bit color - a lot of real estate. But if high density - thumbnails on lower density - service two markets. Professionals could pay the $500.
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Big education problem about standards
Only MM on
5% making money
Not MM - CD ROM is fragmented
The solution to this is not something we can accomplish. Will happen when exec uses encyclopedia - sees kid using it. Can't be that confusing - will back in based on what is going on in the home.
Archiving is not the application
Broadcasting is goal
In audio - you press it, you sell it - relates to broadcasting.
To exploit - what needs broadcasting - software replication, a lot of others. Broadcasting in high enough volume.
Intaglio - applications that broadcast to smaller quantity of users - say 200 Many very viable applications.
Go give presentation to a customer that can be updated every month, say.
Portable with built in CD - in front of a few people, complete CEO talking about mission statement. Picture of factory floor. Product specs. Annual report. All right in presentation. Most customers do not have 1000 sales people
Presentation aspect is just phenomenal. If I give it on this device. If next guy has just 4 color brochure, I'm going to blow him out of the water. Those are what I'm most interested. Value added for productivity.
Step back from that (Andy) presentation mm agin, broadcasting
CD technology in its entirety - I prefer distribution.
In our market it is DISTRIBUTION.
You have to convince people that CDs are appropriate for archiving.
You can say mm, but raw data, financial data. Even if from your office to one other office, still distribution. If you still want many, another technology available.
Do multiple discs or wait for HDCD.
Whether mm, narrowing, can only be done for large volume. Broadcasting to 2 people is good application. Narrowness is due to media - there is a diversity of uses of the technology.
CD ROM is for broadcast, distribution
CD Recordable on network is also broadcasting - can't do with tape.
USGS entire phone book 10000 names, put on network - eliminates paper.
The reason I said archival is wrong - focus is on storage rather than use.
Focus on USE. What you find is that you put info on CD ROM first for immediate, very frequent access. One of best uses of CDR work group information discs. Starts on LAN, what does work group care about. What do they need. What not on network. Drive back to what goes on disc. Only create one disc to allow group to take advantage.
As you work down hierarchy - you get to archival - start with most high value info that is not on network
CD on network - 1 GB 12ms $300 hard drive is faster. If large number using it.
Depends on the software you are using.
CD is 100ms - 600KB
Disk drives are 5ms
Searching 100s of megabytes - as fast as off of hard disk
Most people not searching, but getting to something that is going away.
Put on CD what is offline. Start using CDR as place to move off data in hierarchical fashion - either as single disc or any size juke box or on a self. In any case better than tape or deleted.
HDCD spec. In supporting what Jerry and Andy said. Toshiba/Time Warner - video driving acceptance, blind sided by other developments - chips
NAE show
gang of 4 - video enhance of NTSC - 90% of what is HDTV spec.
within a year or two - for an extra $100 box - Sox Research in Los Gatos.
That will happen before Toshiba /Time Warner.
Sox invented Cubis changer 8 years ago - put video on CD.
As we continue down with CD ROM, CDR premise that worknig together.
Incompatibilities?
How can we avoid these.
Dana -
I coverd this in Feb column.
Orange book - open to interpretation
Problem is media mfg for CDR
drive
software
CDROM Makers
agree to tighten up all adhere
Biggest problem in CDR
I don't care about writer
Drive mfg will worry when big. Wont get big without products.
OSTA - Optical Storage Tech Assoc.
We did fine in JPL test, we are happy with results.
This is for everybody's good. Let's have tests go on.
Test is the one done between recorders
Mike Martin
SIGCAT encouraged
took a fairly long time to do along with other duties
proposing at OSTA - do again, do much quicker, comprehensively
get full gamut
1x
2x
4x
are some mismatches that people ought to know about.
Timeliniess is important issue here.
Important at the time - 18 mos ago. Anyone who thinks nothing has changed has head in sand.
Nothing has been addressed recently.
SGML is the solution.
What each vendor faces.
1000 customers
What is important
Pick what is currently critical mass.
SGML demands are low
Survey - unfair - ciritical mass is not there
we continue to be forced
We’d love for SGML to be successful - same as in database world. We could get to be big like Sysbase. But we have got to be responsive to customers.
Customers see vision, can't provide content.
Won't lose customers.
Need markup to read it.